Set next year’s Budget based on what you actually spent

Stop copying last year’s numbers. Start from reality.

By Jeppe Jørgensen, Founder — Onpoint

Why most Budgets end up wrong

When budgeting starts, most teams do the same thing:

They take last year’s budget - and tweak it.

It feels fast. It feels logical.

But it’s also why budgets drift away from reality.

Each year takes its starting point from:

  • old assumptions
  • old mistakes
  • and numbers that were never quite right

The result:

A budget that looks structured - but doesn’t reflect how money is actually spent.

What changes when you base your Budget on actuals

Instead of starting from an old plan, you start from what actually happened.

Your invoices show:

  • what you really bought
  • where the money went
  • how spending changes over time

That means:

You’re not setting your budget based on assumptions - but on data.

How to do it - step by step

1

Start with 12 months of actual Spend

Collect your invoices from the past year. This gives you: • seasonality • recurring costs • true spend levels

2

Group your Spend

Organize purchases into meaningful categories. Not how your current budget looks - but how money is actually spent.

3

Separate recurring and one-off Spend

Some costs repeat. Others don’t. Separating them: • makes the budget more accurate • makes variances easier to understand

4

Adjust where things change

Use what you know to update: • price changes • new needs • projects starting or ending

5

Distribute across the year

Spending is rarely flat. Use real patterns to: • place costs in the right months • avoid false variances

What this gives you

When you base your budget on actuals:

  • Your budget reflects reality
  • Variances become meaningful - not structural
  • You spend less time explaining numbers
  • You can act faster

Summary

  • Budgets fail when they rely on old numbers
  • Actuals give you a realistic starting point
  • You get better accuracy and fewer surprises
  • Most importantly: a budget you can trust

Frequently asked questions

Why is building a budget from last year’s plan a problem?

Because it carries over outdated assumptions. Each iteration compounds errors instead of correcting them.

How many months of data do I need?

12 months is ideal to capture seasonality. 6 months can work if your spend is stable.

What’s the difference between actuals-based and zero-based budgeting?

Actuals-based uses real spend as a baseline. Zero-based starts from scratch. Actuals-based is faster and more practical for most teams.

What kind of insights do invoices give me?

They show what you actually bought - supplier, price, and volume - not just totals.

How does this improve next year’s budget?

You base it on reality, not assumptions. That means fewer surprises and smaller variances.

Stop guessing. Build from what you actually spent

Use real invoice data as your baseline